Type almost any version of this question into a search engine, "can you get pregnant at 40," "chances of getting pregnant at 42 naturally," "odds of getting pregnant by age," and you'll get a wall of numbers, most of them from sources with no obvious medical backing. It's a fair question to want a straight answer to, so here's what's actually known, where it comes from, and what it does and doesn't tell you about your own situation.
Quick jump:
The numbers, as reputable sources actually state them
According to Tommy's, the UK pregnancy and baby charity, among couples having regular unprotected sex, 85 out of 100 women under 30 will conceive within a year, dropping to 75 out of 100 at age 30, 66 out of 100 at 35, and 44 out of 100 at 40. That's a meaningful decline, and it isn't a straight line either; the drop tends to accelerate through the late 30s rather than easing in gradually from your twenties onward.
Reliable, precisely sourced figures for ages 42 and 45 specifically are harder to come by, and we'd rather tell you that honestly than hand you a number that isn't properly backed. What is well established, including by the NHS and Mayo Clinic, is that the decline continues and steepens further past 40, driven by the same underlying process: fewer eggs remaining, and a higher proportion of those eggs are no longer chromosomally normal. If a precise figure for your age matters to you, that's exactly the kind of question a fertility specialist can answer properly, using tests that look at your own ovarian reserve rather than a population-wide average that may not describe you.
Why the decline happens
Mayo Clinic's explanation is straightforward: egg quality and quantity decline with age, and the rate of loss speeds up in the mid-30s, leaving fewer and lower-quality eggs available. This makes natural conception harder and also raises the risk of miscarriage, which Tommy's data reflects too, rising from around 1 in 10 pregnancies under 30 to roughly 2 in 10 between 35 and 39, and higher again past 45. It's worth understanding that these two things, harder to conceive and higher miscarriage risk, share the same root cause rather than being separate problems.
What these numbers don't tell you
A population average is exactly that: an average. It doesn't know your individual ovarian reserve, your cycle history, or whether there's anything else going on that a statistic can't capture. Plenty of people in their early 40s conceive without difficulty, and plenty of people in their early 30s find it harder than the averages would suggest. If you want to know where you personally stand rather than where the average of thousands of people stands, that requires an actual test, not another search result.
When it's worth getting that tested
NHS guidance suggests that most people under 39 who are having regular unprotected sex should expect to conceive within a year, and recommends seeing a GP sooner, rather than waiting the full year, if you're 36 or older. That's a reasonable rule of thumb whatever your circumstances, and it doesn't mean something is necessarily wrong; it simply means the numbers make earlier information more useful the closer you get to, or past, your late 30s.
Getting tested doesn't commit you to any particular treatment. An Anti-Müllerian Hormone (AMH) test and an antral follicle count give a picture of your egg reserve, and can be booked as your very first step with us, through a call to our patient enquiry team, well before you decide whether IVF, or anything else, is actually right for you.
If your results suggest natural conception is unlikely to happen soon
This is exactly the point where the population statistics stop being useful and your own results start to matter more. Some patients, once they've seen their numbers, decide to keep trying naturally for a while longer. Others move towards treatment sooner, particularly if time already feels like a pressing factor for them personally. If that's the situation you're in, we've written separately about how we help patients weigh up own eggs against donor eggs after 40, what a realistic number of treatment cycles looks like, and the emotional side of going through this at this stage, since a single article can't do justice to all of it.
It isn't only about the woman's age
Most searches on this topic focus entirely on female age, understandably, since the decline is steeper and better documented. But sperm quality also changes with age, and male factors are involved in a significant proportion of cases where conception is taking longer than expected. If you and a partner have been trying for a while, it's worth both of you being tested rather than assuming the explanation, if there is one, sits with one person by default.
The honest version, not the alarming one
We'd rather tell you plainly that fertility does decline with age, and that the decline is real and well documented, than either dismiss the concern or lean into language designed to make you feel you're already out of time. Neither extreme is accurate, and neither is particularly useful to you. What is useful is real information about where you stand, which is something a conversation with us, not another search result, can actually give you.
If you'd like to understand your own numbers rather than a population average, our patient enquiry team can get your fertility tests booked, with no assumption about what you'll decide to do once you have them.
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